Deterministic and probabilistic ship pitch prediction using a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing,reinforcement learning and improved QRNN

The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems.     

“三软”煤层沿空掘巷围岩力学环境及支护体承载性能分析

为应对"三软"煤层综放沿空掘巷围岩稳定性差的问题,通过数值模拟分析、揭示"三软"煤层中锚杆、锚索载荷变化规律及其与围岩变形相互作用关系,为"三软"煤层沿空掘巷锚网支护参数优化提供理论依据,改善了巷道支护状况,降低相邻工作面间保护煤柱压煤率,提高矿井经济效益和社会效益。     

乌兰矿采矿现状及技术应对方案

本文分析了乌兰矿投产前期采矿现状及存在的主要问题,针对该矿所处蒙古国经济落后、投资风险大的现实状况,为避免生产中断、规避投资风险,早日回收前期投资考虑,采取了双斜坡道开拓、全尾胶结充填、高端壁空场嗣后充填采矿、多中段组合式连续开采等系列技术应对方案。大大降低了一次性投资规模及投资风险,前期投资得以快速回笼的同时,矿山产能也充分释放,确保了矿山的持续稳定,取得了较好的经济和社会效益。为海外地下近地表矿体开采矿山规避投资风险提供了很好的技术方案借鉴。     

基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

基于平均飞行航迹的CCO减噪效用研究

近年来，通过优化飞行程序降低机场飞机噪声影响成为机场环境保护的重要研究方向。文章首先建立了基于飞机“噪声-功率-距离”数据的噪声计算模型，介绍了平均飞行航迹以及连续爬升运行(Continuous Climb Opera-tion, CCO)离场程序的相关理论，最后以大型国际机场为实例，使用飞机平均飞行航迹进行噪声预测，运用综合噪声模型计算出噪声影响面积并绘制噪声影响等值线图，比较了CCO离场相对常规的标准仪表离场(Standard Instru-ment Departure, SID)的降噪效果。结果表明，CCO离场程序可有效降低机场噪声影响，在高噪声级影响区域的降噪效果更佳。     

两种混合单元混合机理的数值模拟

为了研究SV型和SX型混合单元在全静态乳化器的混合机理,使用群体平衡模型对乳化器内部流场进行模拟分析。结果表明,SV型与SX型混合单元的混合机理是油相与水相材料通过混合单元时其空间流动方向改变,在流场内形成大量的漩涡,从而达到乳化的目的;通过比较流体在经过SV型和SX型混合单元后的水相索特平均直径(d_(32)),得出SV型混合单元的乳化效果更强,但同时消耗更多的能量,压降更大。     

国际橄榄理事会的定位和使命及相关标准（网络首发、推荐阅读）

The International Olive Council(IOC) is an international intergovernmental organization dedicated to olive oil and table olives, aiming at modernizing olive production, coordinating olive policies, improving the regulation of international trade, defending the quality of the olive sector and promoting olive oil and table olives to increase their consumption. The IOC grants recognition of laboratories and tasting panels in annual trials when they meet the conditions given in the decisions adopting the IOC certificate for laboratories for the physico–chemical testing of olive oil and laboratories for the sensory analysis of virgin olive oils. The IOC establishes analysis methods applying to olive oils and olive pomace oils for purity, quality and organoleptic assessment. The IOC elaborates guides of storage conditions for olive oils and olive pomace oils, of managing virgin olive oil tasting panels and of sensory testing laboratories. In future works, the IOC includes activities to identify analytical criteria for detecting fraud and guaranteeing the quality of olive oils and olive pomace oils.     

基于分形理论的黄河内蒙古段河势演变特征及其与凌汛灾害关联研究

寒区河道凌汛灾害河势“弯道效应”的量化评估十分重要。基于分形理论提出河道横断面-纵剖面-平面多维度河势分形维数计算方法及其物理机制，并探讨黄河内蒙古段不同维度河势演变分形特征及其与凌汛灾害的关联关系。结果表明，黄河内蒙古段不同维度河势均具有多尺度自相似分形特征，且具有多年记忆周期的长程相关性；冰坝（严重性冰塞）发生频次与河道主槽弯曲分形维数呈正相关指数型函数关系，与河相系数、深泓点高程和河段平均底坡分形维数负相关，与水深-面积分形维数正相关，总体表明冰坝灾害更易发生于主槽偏移摆动大、蜿蜒曲折、河湾发育程度高的宽浅型弯曲河道，研究成果可为凌汛期冰塞冰坝灾害易发河段诊断及预测提供重要理论依据。     

微通道板表面羟基化工艺研究北大核心

研究了3种微通道板基底羟基化的方法,测量了羟基化处理后微通道板基底表面水接触角及通道端面的形貌变化,分析了各种方法中微通道板基底的亲水性和腐蚀情况。实验结果表明:氨水双氧水溶液对基体表面的亲水性能提升不大,NaOH溶液对基体有腐蚀作用,经食人鱼溶液处理的基体表面亲水性明显提高且无腐蚀作用。研究了微通道板在食人鱼溶液中的浸泡时间和浸泡温度对表面亲水性的影响。结果表明:随着浸泡温度的增加,微通道板表面水接触角先减小后增大,当温度为80℃时达到极小值,浸泡时间对微通道板表面的亲水性影响不大。最终确定了微通道板表面羟基化工艺:浸泡温度为80℃,静置时间为20~60 min。